欧央行在上周的7月议息会议中正式宣布加息50基点，如期加入了对抗通胀而退出超常规宽松货币政策的央行之列，退出了负利率政策。同时，欧央行正式推出了TPI工具，旨在防范加息进程中的债务风险。市场对于欧洲的经济基本面本来就存疑，加息后更是加剧了对于欧洲陷入衰退的预期。作为全球重要经济体，欧洲的通胀和增长的前景值得市场持续关注。

行长拉加德随后在官网上的THE ECB BLOG专栏发表了最新的文章讨论实施政策的考虑和未来展望，我们全文转载并翻译，帮读者了解央行的出发点以及判断未来的行动框架：

Ensuring price stability

确保价格稳定

2022年7月23日

克里斯汀·拉加德, 欧洲央行行长

Inflation is too high. Russia’s war in Ukraine has pushed up the cost of energy and agricultural goods. Shortages of materials, equipment and workers due to the pandemic are also lifting prices. This is hurting people and businesses across the euro area, especially those on low incomes.

通货膨胀太高了。俄乌冲突推高了能源和农产品的成本。新冠疫情导致的材料、设备和工人短缺也推高了价格。这正在伤害整个欧元区的人民和企业，尤其是低收入人群。

Much of this inflation is being driven by factors that central bankers cannot control. But what we can do is ensure that inflation does not become persistent. That is what could happen if price rises spread through the economy and people start to expect higher inflation in the future. Then we could see the kind of wage-price spirals that have historically led to inflation getting out of hand.

这次通胀在很大程度上是由中央银行无法控制的因素驱动的。但我们能做的是确保通胀不会持续下去。如果价格上涨在整个经济中蔓延，并且人们开始预期未来会出现更高的通货膨胀，持续通胀就是可能发生的情况。然后我们可以看到历史上导致通货膨胀失控的那种工资价格螺旋式上升。

That is why, on Thursday, my colleagues and I on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council decided to raise euro area interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, ending our eight-year spell of negative rates. We are united in our commitment to make sure that inflation returns to our 2% target over the medium term.

这就是为什么周四，我和我在欧洲中央银行管理委员会的同事决定将欧元区利率提高 0.5 个百分点，结束我们八年的负利率周期。我们一致承诺确保通胀在中期内回到我们2% 的目标。

This was the first rate increase in 11 years. But it is in fact only the latest step in our journey to unwind the special measures we had to take to fight a series of crises. We started that journey last December, when we said we would halt our pandemic bond-buying programme, which helped the euro area cope with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 crisis. Last month, we halted another bond-buying programme dating from 2015 when the euro area was facing the risk of deflation, which can be just as damaging as high inflation.

这是11年来的首次加息。但事实上，这只是我们解除为应对一系列危机而不得不采取的特殊措施的旅程中的最新一步。我们于去年 12 月开始了这一进程，当时我们表示将停止我们的疫情债券购买计划，该计划帮助欧元区应对COVID-19 危机带来的经济影响。上个月，当欧元区面临通缩风险时，我们停止了另一项自 2015 年以来的债券购买计划，这可能与高通胀一样具有破坏性。

Inflation will return to our 2% target

通胀将回到我们2% 的目标

With these actions, we are sending a clear message to companies, workers and investors: inflation will return to our 2% target over the medium term. And these actions are already having an impact on interest rates across the euro area, which will help steer the economy in a way that leads us back to stable prices.

通过这些行动，我们向企业、工人和投资者发出了一个明确的信息：通胀将在中期内回到我们 2% 的目标。这些行动已经对整个欧元区的利率产生了影响，这将有助于引导经济，使我们回到稳定的价格。

We will keep raising rates for as long as necessary to bring inflation down to our target over the medium term. We also recognise that Europe is facing great uncertainty, not least over the war and energy prices. As the economy evolves and responds to the many challenges from outside and within, the Governing Council will review the situation and decide on the right pace for our next steps depending on the incoming data.

只要有必要，我们将继续加息，以在中期将通胀降至我们的目标。我们也认识到欧洲正面临着巨大的不确定性，尤其是在战争和能源价格方面。随着经济的发展并应对来自外部和内部的许多挑战，理事会将审查情况并根据输入的数据决定下一步行动的正确步伐。

Policy transmission needs to be orderly across the whole euro area

整个欧元区政策传导需要有序

We are conducting monetary policy in a monetary union of 19 countries – soon to be 20. As a result, our policy is transmitted to households and firms through 19 different financial markets. To address high inflation across the whole euro area, we need to make sure our policy transmission is orderly across all euro area countries. This is why we have also designed a new instrument, called the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). It will safeguard the singleness of our monetary policy, and so help us ensure prices remain stable over the medium term.

我们正在由 19个国家组成的货币联盟实施货币政策——很快将达到 20个。因此，我们的政策通过 19个不同的金融市场传递给家庭和企业。为了解决整个欧元区的高通胀问题，我们需要确保我们的政策在所有欧元区国家的传导是有序的。这就是为什么我们还设计了一种新的工具，称为传导保护工具 (TPI)。它将维护我们货币政策的单一性，从而帮助我们确保价格在中期内保持稳定。

The euro unites 340 million people. It has been, and will remain, a stable currency. That is what we are committed to. It is our job, and we will deliver.

欧元团结了 3.4 亿人。它曾经是并将继续是一种稳定的货币。这就是我们的承诺。这是我们必将做好的本职工作。